CALIFORNIA APPLICATIONS PROGRAM (2ND CAP PROJECT)

United States

Sponsors: UCSD/SIO/NOAA
StartDate: 10/2004
PI/Co-PIs: Dr. K. Georgakakos
Collaborators: City of San Diego Water Department

The difference in timing between water supply and urban water demand in Southern California necessitates water storage. Existing reservoirs were designed based upon hydrologic data from a given historical period, and, given recent evidence for climatic change, may be insufficient to meet demand under future climate change scenarios. The focus of this study is to assess the ability of existing storage to meet urban water demand under present and projected future climatic scenarios, and to determine the effectiveness of storage capacity expansions. The reservoir system in San Diego, California is used as a case study. Uncertainties in climatic forcing and projected demand scenarios are considered by the models. We find that the climate change scenarios will be more costly to the city than scenarios using historical hydrologic parameters. The magnitude of the costs and the specific optimal policy are sensitive to projected population growth and the accuracy to which our model can predict spills.

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