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Our research and development work has beneficial applications throughout the world; solving water-related issues from the arid sand dunes of northeastern Africa to the rain drenched tropical forests of the Rio Chagres in Panama.

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HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING IN ARID SOUTHERN ARIZONA

United States

Sponsors: ADWR Santa Cruz Area Management Association
StartDate: 01/2005
PI/Co-PIs: Konstantine Georgakakos
Collaborators: UATree Ring Lab (Dr. Dave Meko)

The project concerns the development of a set of long-range prediction models for the Santa Cruz River flow in southern Arizona to assist long term sustainable water resources management and planning in the region. The models consist of: 1) a stochastic model of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintains the characteristics and variability of a 45-year hourly precipitation record from a near-by raingauge; 2) a process based conceptual model that transforms the precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates the basin's antecedent moisture conditions; and 3) a simplified groundwater model for four microbasins that accounts for alluvial groundwater recharge from flow, as well as evapotranspiration and pumping losses. Ensemble generation of long-range streamflow by the constructed models reflects two different regimes. The first regime is that of the historic rain gauge record. The second regime is a paleoclimatic reconstructed precipitation regime derived for this location from tree-ring data (in collaboration with the University of Arizona Tree Ring Lab). These two ensemble sets are used to evaluate the risk that the storage of the four microbasins will decline below given thresholds that represents an aquifer stress under different regional pumping schemes.

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